Behavioral Finance: A Different View in the State of Rio de Janeiro

The objective of this work is to present the consolidation of foreign reflections of a new branch in the financial theory, behavioral finance, that it aims at to adhere to the psychological aspects and the sociological ones of the individuals in the process of taking of decision at the moment to carry through an investment, as well as its applications through the incorporation of evidences on the irrationality of the investor. This new segment has as objective the revision and the improvement of the economic-financial model used currently. Through this study it was verified presence of the effect of super valuation of the assets and the effect disposal, as well as of aversion to the risk, since in the occurred economic crisis in 2008 middle a bigger index in the closing of companies was evidenced, and a minor in the opening of companies in the state of Rio De Janeiro. The association to the behavioral finance in such a way provides the agreement of the psychological process that motivates the investments, assisting in the construction of a model of more adequate taking of decision, how much in the act of contract of its administrators who will have to possess abilities adequate psychological techniques and in intention to prevent cognitive bias as reliable excess. The regression for being static got errors in its forecast high thus was not an incisive method, being able to be applied the forecast of demand of products, not obtaining success thus in this model.

individual tends to be prone to risk, unlike what happens in the EUT. From this, these authors identified three distinct effects: the certainty, in which the individuals in the comparison between a certain event and a probable prefer the right, even if the probable is better; the reflection, which will demonstrate the search for people for safer gains and riskier losses; and isolation, which is linked to the ability to evaluate, presenting the difficulty of individuals to assume mistakes made. Thus the study of behavioral finances arises as a way of predicting and modeling the said "irrational", but also systematic, of men and women in decision making, through their understanding, inducing them to a better decision, which will lead to the Reduction of money loss in simple everyday situations, consequently in a greater gain [6]. The objective of this article is to analyze the behavior of investors when trying to start a business in the state of Rio de Janeiro, on the optics of behavioral finance, glimpsing the motivations focused on entrepreneurship, using comparative analysis Static of a prediction through a linear regression and compared with the facts happened with the opening and closing of companies in the State. It is expected, through this presentation, to outline the process of analysis and to incite the study of financial behavior through theories from this alternative approach, emphasizing its usefulness for the understanding of important phenomena observed to this practice in the Rio de Janeiro market.

II. THEORETICAL REFERENCE 2.1 MO DERN FINANCE
For a long period, finance studies were basically related to financial instruments and their respective uses by economic agents, which aimed to control and minimize financial risks. However, as nothing in the financial market is static, financial theories have been influenced by political, economic and social facts, adapting to the conditions of the time [7] [8]. The traditional finance theory was pioneering, considered the market irrational and judged that it was not always correct. In it, investors were based on past information to design the future [7]. This assumption, however, contradicts the principle of temporal discontinuity which states that companies -corporations and markets -do not behave in the future in the same way they have behaved in the past. [7]. From this, the theory of modern finances has as the main characteristic the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) founded on the EUT and rational expectations [8].

OPPO RTUNITY FO R EFFICIENT MARKETS
An opportunity for efficient markets , according to Milanez [9], it is characterized by neoclassical economic tradition, and admits that human behavior is rational, capable of maximizing the expected utility and optimally analyzing all the information that is Available. In this way, it is stated that the markets are driven by economic agents that act under an unlimited rationality, making decisions in the perspective of the expected utility theory, formulating expectations often precipitated. However, with the advent of rational expectations theory, developed in the work of Milanez [9], individuals began to use all available information to improve their predictions, and to make more reasonable decisions. From this, it was found that these conditions imply the same result of the perfect market models, in which the price history of an asset does not influence its future price, because what has occurred in the past is not correlated with the future changes. In this way, according to EMH, whenever the economic agents check some new information about a particular asset, they immediately adjust the asset prices given the new information available.
In addition, a possible irrational behavior of a given agent, characterized as random, would be compensated by another individual, not impacting on the prices [10] [11]. Modern finance theory has its emphasis in the 80 with globalization, but in the 90 the expected utility theory had its rise with the analysis of emerging countries.

BEHAVIO RAL FINANCE
In this new area of study concerning finance, the themes of psychology and economics were incorporated in order to clarify the decision-making process in this new scenario. Following this line of thought, the behavioral finances are based on the study of human action and their weaknesses and failures. These, in turn, are linked to the decision-making process, in which most of the decisions are influenced by the behaviors described by Barbedo & Silva [2] where there are effects on the certainty and uncertainty of investments tied to behavioral finance, analyzed and stated to follow. This effect is characterized by the tendency of individuals to value more possibilities with greater likelihood of occurring. That is, people prefer events that give them absolute certainty of gain by the simple fact that they do not understand the meaning of the probable results and the notion of expected value [7] [12]. According to Ferreira et al. [7], this effect deals with the fact that individuals remember, most of the time, of events that occur more often, or those that have a greater likelihood of occurring. In this way, their respective behaviors would be influenced by the availability of events, as well as by the association of these to visibility, exposure and overhang. In addition, Barbedo & Silva [2] it states that people are more dissatisfied with losses than they are satisfied with earnings. In this way, the investor tends to risk more in a loss situation in an attempt to minimize it, or even eliminate it, recovering at least his initial investment initial. This attitude can lead to more drastic losses, to the point of not being able to bear it anymore and being forced to abandon the investment. According to Bazerman [13] the rational decision-making model is based on elements that define the way in which the decision must be made, not as it really is. In this line of thinking, considering that managers process many decisions, many of them routine -requiring little mental effort -and other, however, strategic -require a special sensitivity, dealing with several aspects such as new directions, setting, winning the competition, and above of everything, to obtain profit -it is essential for the projection of the company that the latter are well defined. [14]. For this, we study some biases that are intrinsic to the individuals, so that the decision making is not biased. Some of these behaviors will be analyzed for a better understanding. This status expression is defined by Samuelson and Zeckhauser [15] to demonstrate the tendency of people to cling to old rules or conditions. That is, when new relationships are presented to individuals, they tended to prefer pre-defined options. This phenomenon is tied to the idea of loss aversion relative to the reference point, that is, most people define and set a benchmark to follow, even if they offer better opportunities. One way of breaking this paradigm and following more patterns that are rational is the very knowledge of this bias. According to Yoshinaga [1], people tend to make judgments from previously formed models. From this, individuals estimating a probability disregard sample size, taking into account only one representation for the entire population, selecting information that is more convenient to them than the relevant ones. This behavior is known in the literature as the belief that there is a tendency to regress to the mean of the results. It occurs because of the inability of people to statistically analyze independent events -the occurrence of one does not statistically influence the occurrence of the other. One of the cases that can be cited is the multiple-choice test with 5 alternatives for each question, when you have a sequence of questions with the same alternative, consequently, individuals begin to doubt if that is really the correct template. This behavior is biased, because each question is an event independent of each other, that is, for each of them you would have a 20% chance of success [16]. The great challenge in the field of finance is in proving the predictability of behavioral anomalies, and whether these can actually determine changes in the market. The theory of perspectives based on the grounds of loss aversion and excessive self-confidence was one of the ways in which some of the types of behaviors were identified by the researchers Tversky and Kahneman [4].
However, there is not yet a single model that explains all the anomalies generated by human behavior, but for each one in particular. The following will describe some theories. Tversky and Kahneman [4] conducted research at Stanford University and Columbia. In it they have found evidence that changing from a perspective to a specific situation can influence and bias the choice of alternatives. From this, it has been found that people, within certain gain events, are risk averse, while in choices involving losses, they are risk prone. Through the theory in question two basic concepts are analyzed: loss aversion, and excessive self-confidence.

LOSS AVERSION
This is a concept considered one of the pillars of Behavioral Finance, and states that the investor ponders both gains and losses, but from different perspectives. According to Tversky and Kahneman [4] investors feel much more the pain of loss than the satisfaction gained by an equivalent gain. According to Rogers et. al [8], it is observed that the fear of loss leads people to make irrational decisions, creating cognitive frames that make it difficult to analyze historical data and mainly statistical probabilities. This theory contradicts the Theory of Utility, a precept integral to the Modern Model of Finance. Figure 1 assumes that the investor assesses the risk of an investment according to the change it provides to its level of wealth, the other in Figure 2 states that the investor assesses the risk from a will measure gains and losses. Another characteristic of this behavior is the fear of repentance. It is worth remembering that it is quite painful for an investor to make mistakes, and with this attitude, his profit is not maximized, contradicting once again the Theory of Utility. Milanez [9] overconfidence is a hallmark of most of the world's population. With investors, it is no different, since most consider themselves to be above average. This behavior makes sure that your information is better and more reliable than that of others who operate in the same market. Consequently, due to the incorrect understanding of reality, there is a tendency to achieve an excessive turnover, with a marked risk.

III. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL MARKET AND A STATISTICAL FORECAS TING METHOD
We then return to the discussion about the opening of companies in the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2007, being of great relevance in the study of behavioral finances in the line of temporal analysis, as shown in Figure 3 (relation from 2007 to 2008). According to Barbedo & Silva [2], there was emphatic entrepreneurial motivation in microsystems in the state of Rio de Janeiro in investments in entrepreneurial ventures.     The correlation of the forecast and the closure of companies show that there is a margin of error above 30% that can be explained by the static forecast and by the variable behavior of the financial market. The study of this new branch, behavioral finance, came to aggregate to the analysis of the decision making in the investments made by the individuals, once the theory of modern finances was not enough to explain the anomalies occurred in the financial market.

IV. CONCLUSION
In the present work, this theme was used in a new perspective, that is, the studies found on behavioral finances, mostly, are focused on the financial market, but through this work can be analyzed, from a motivational point of view, the factors that drive and influence individuals at the time of making any investment. In the case in question, which leads them to open as well as to close a deal. Through this study, we verified the presence of the effects of asset overvaluation and the disposition effect, Barbedo & Silva [2], risk aversion, advocated by Tversky and Kahneman [5], since in the economic crisis occurred in the middle of 2008 was evidenced a higher index in the closing of companies, and a lower in the opening of companies in the State of Rio de Janeiro. As previously discussed by,it is known that, despite the EMH defend the rationality of investors, human behavior is influenced by several psychological factors that, most of the time, distort the rational decision-making process. From this, the association with behavioral finances provides a better understanding of the psychological process that drives investments, favoring the constructio n of a more adequate decision-making model, as well as in the selection and hiring of its managers who should have appropriate psychological and technical skills in order to avoid cognitive biases such as overconfidence. Regression, because it is static, has raised errors in its prediction. In this way, this was not an incisive method, because it was not successful. However, it can be applied to the demand forecast of products.