Geostatistics Applied to the Study of Deforestation and Malaria in Rural Areas of Western Amazon

Carlos Alberto Paraguassú-Chaves, Carla Dolezel Trindade, Simão Aznar Filho, Fabrício Moraes de Almeida, Simão Dolezel Aznar, Carlos Alberto Dolezel Trindade, Levi Pereira Granja de Souza, Ricardo Guanabara, Lenita Rodrigues Moreira Dantas

Geostatistics, semivariogram and kriging, deforestation, malaria, Western Amazon.

Objective: To analyze the behavior of the spatial dispersion of deforestation and the number of malaria cases, in addition to providing integration of deforestation risk with epidemiological risk of malaria in Gleba União Bandeirantes, current União Bandeirantes District, in Porto Velho, Rondônia, Western Amazon, for a period of 3 years. Method: Two fundamental tools of statistical indicators were used: the semivariogram and the kriging. The semivariogram method is the mathematical modeling that allows studying the natural dispersion of the variable, and the Kriging method, used to analyze the spatial variability of the existing indicators in the area. Results: The indicative method of kriging showed that the occurrence of malaria cases is related to the growth of deforestation. With the advance of deforestation towards the north of the studied area, cases of malaria increased in the same direction. There was an increase in malaria cases east of the population concentration, converging with the area of advance of deforestation. Conclusion: The methods used are efficient to correlate and monitor deforestation and the social production of malaria. Public managers must develop means to implement a deforestation control strategy integrated with the malaria endemic in the União Bandeirantes District area.

Received: 25 May 2021; Received in revised form: 21 Jun 2021; Accepted: 29 Jun 2021; Available online: 07 Jul 2021

10.22161/ijaers.87.1